Historical Backtesting
Averages hide the thing that actually decides your outcome: the order the returns arrive in. This replays real calendar-year returns for stocks, bonds and inflation from 1928 to 2024.
Stocks 80% · Bonds 20%
Ending value
$48,784
In today's dollars
$31,429
55.2% total inflation
Return / yr
9.2%
6.6% after inflation
Worst drawdown
-25.2%
What this sequence did
Starting in 2007 and investing for 18 years, you put in $10,000 and ended with $48,784 — worth $31,429 in 2007 dollars once 55.2% of inflation is removed.
The worst calendar year was 2008 at -36.5% on stocks; the best was 2013 at 32.1%. The deepest peak-to-trough fall along the way was -25.2%.
Same average return, different order — that difference is sequence risk, and it is the single biggest reason two identical plans end in different places.
| Year | Stocks | Bonds | Inflation | Balance | Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 5.5% | 10.2% | 2.8% | $10,643 | $10,353 |
| 2008 | -36.5% | 20.1% | 3.8% | $7,959 | $7,458 |
| 2009 | 25.9% | -11.1% | -0.4% | $9,433 | $8,876 |
| 2010 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.6% | $10,711 | $9,920 |
| 2011 | 2.1% | 16.0% | 3.2% | $11,235 | $10,082 |
| 2012 | 15.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | $12,730 | $11,188 |
| 2013 | 32.1% | -9.1% | 1.5% | $15,772 | $13,657 |
| 2014 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 1.6% | $17,817 | $15,185 |
| 2015 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | $18,059 | $15,376 |
| 2016 | 11.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | $19,785 | $16,629 |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | $23,316 | $19,194 |
| 2018 | -4.2% | -0.0% | 2.4% | $22,526 | $18,109 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 9.6% | 1.8% | $28,584 | $22,574 |
| 2020 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 1.2% | $33,353 | $26,027 |
| 2021 | 28.5% | -4.4% | 4.7% | $40,654 | $30,301 |
| 2022 | -18.0% | -17.8% | 8.0% | $33,337 | $23,007 |
| 2023 | 26.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | $40,546 | $26,880 |
| 2024 | 25.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | $48,784 | $31,429 |